Bear Down for the Turnaround

Team Overview: When the 2021 season concluded, as did the Matt Nagy and Ryan Pace eras in Chicago. Nagy had established high expectations as the offensive coordinator of the Kansas City Chiefs, but throughout his tenure in Chicago, Nagy regressed. In his first season, the Bears were 12-4 but were eliminated in the divisional round. After that, the Bears only made the playoffs one more time in 2020 during the first year of playoff expansion. Nagy’s offense continued to fall short of expectations following this first season, averaging the third-worst third-down conversion percentage, consistently high interception rates, and never averaged more than 23.3 points per game in a season again. Pace continued to construct poor rosters for Nagy to work with throughout his four years there, and the Bears’ record with Pace as GM was 48-65. Pace survived the John Fox era while going 14-34, but wouldn’t survive his failures to construct successful rosters with Nagy. However, the Bears have found a new head coach in Colts defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus and new general manager Ryan Poles, former Kansas City Chiefs executive director of player personnel.

Eberflus is bringing in Green Bay quarterbacks coach Luke Getty as their offensive coordinator with play-calling responsibilities, and Alan Williams, the former Colts defensive backs and safeties coach, as their defensive coordinator. Although the defensive scheme will likely appear similar to what Eberflus constructed in Indianapolis, the offense should have a new, exciting look. Getty has never called plays or been an offensive coordinator at the professional level but has constructed successful offenses at the collegiate level. In 2009, Getty produced an offense that was top three in quarterback efficiency, rushing, time of possession, turnovers, third-down percentage, and red zone efficiency while the offensive coordinator at West Virginia Wesleyan. Beyond that, Getty also found success at the Indiana University of Pennsylvania while working as the offensive coordinator at Mississippi State. Getty has also had the opportunity to work with Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers, one of the most innovative coaches and experienced quarterbacks in the league, since 2019 and had a stint with the organization from 2014 to 2018. I expect Gesty’s offense to combine elements of the Shanahan west coast offense and collegiate spread concepts. Justin Fields had a history of being a successful mobile quarterback at Ohio State, and his mobility was considered one of his best skills coming into the league. His skill set as a quarterback fits well with offenses Getty has previously constructed, but the Bears will have to build a solid supporting cast around Fields.

Ryan Poles began his NFL playing career with the Chicago Bears offseason/practice squad. After that, Poles quickly transitioned into scouting assistants with the Kansas City Chiefs. Over the next decade, Poles worked his way up through the organization, holding titles such as college scouting coordinator, director of college scouting, assistant director of player personnel, and director of player personnel. Poles evaluated and drafted talented players like Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Justin Houston, and Eric Berry during his eight-year stint in the college scouting department and showed an ability to find game-changing talent throughout all rounds of the draft. Poles worked closely with Chiefs GM Brett Veach this past offseason to rehaul their offensive line unit, and I expect him to invest assets to do that in Chicago as well.

Pre Free Agency: The Bears have significant decisions to make about the direction of this football team. Aaron Rodgers’ future in Green Bay is shrouded in mystery. The Minnesota Vikings will be entering a new era with a new head coach and general manager like the Bears. The Lions are still a ways away from being competitive. The NFC North may be more open this upcoming season than people expect. The Bears already have some defensive pieces in place that match what Eberflus did in Indianapolis, and they need to retain some of those pieces with expiring contracts. First, the Bears should resign Akiem Hicks (3yrs, $39M – two years guaranteed) and Bilal Nichols (4yrs, $25M) on the defensive side of the ball, and James Daniels (5yrs, $35.5M – four years guaranteed) and extending an early restricted free agents tender to Sam Mustipher.

Free Agency: Headed into free agency, the Bears don’t have much cap flexibility to reconstruct their roster. The Bears will need to cut players on bad contracts who underperformed last season, like Eddie Goldman (saving around $6M), Tarik Cohen (saving $2.25M), and Jimmy Graham (saving $2.33M) with post-June 1st designations. The Bears should also consider restructuring Nick Foles’ contract to save $5.5M. Next, the Bears should sign Kwon Alexander (1yr, $2.75M – LB New Orleans) to pair with Roquon Smith to play interior or outside linebacker (depending on where Eberflus wants to play Smith). Sign Bryce Callahan (1yr, $4.5M – CB Denver) to play a slot corner role similar to Kenny Moore in Indianapolis. Bring in Bradley Bozeman (3yrs, $24M – Baltimore) to play center and upgrade the interior of the offensive line. Finally, adding Cedrick Wilson Jr. (3yrs, $20M) to give Fields a young, talented ball catcher.

Draft: The Bears should be looking to acquire as much draft capital as they look to get younger on draft night. The addition of Kwon Alexander in free agency makes a player like Danny Trevathan expendable. The Los Angeles Rams are a team who haven't been afraid to trade draft picks in the past for older players to help them win now. Without many options before their first selection or in free agency, the trade market for Trevathan should be warm. The Bears should also look to move veteran quarterback Andy Dalton this draft. If organizations aren't sold on the upcoming quarterbacks class available in the draft, a handful of teams would be interested in the veteran signal-caller Dalton. In particular, a team I expect to have an interest in Dalton is Pittsburgh. Suppose Pittsburgh can't land one of the elite signal callers like Aaron Rodgers or Russel Wilson. If the rookie quarterback they're interested in, rumored to be Malik Willis following the senior bowl, is already selected, they could be in the market for Dalton. Pittsburgh can't start the season with Mason Rudolph or Dwayne Haskins under center, and one way or another, they'll be expanding their quarterback room to make it back to the playoffs.

Chicago Bears receives: 2022 4th Round Pick (135th) and 2022 6th Round Pick (213th)

Los Angeles Rams receivers: Danny Trevathan and 2023 6th Round Pick

Chicago Bears receives: 2022 2nd Round Pick (52nd), 2023 3rd Round Pick, and 2023 4th Round Pick

Pittsburgh Steelers receives: Andy Dalton and 2022 6th Round Pick (185th)

Now that the Bears have taken two aging assets and turned them into current and future draft capital, they need to prioritize protecting Justin Fields and adding talent around him. Offensively, the Bears should look into finding a future Cody Whitehair or Germain Ifedi replacement, depending on who is available, and a talented pass-catcher to grow with Fields. Defensively, the Bears lack secondary talent, specifically at cornerback, and they need to add developmental players to progress under the current starters, allowing them to prepare for potential/future starting roles. With that in mind, this is what I expect the Bears draft to be potentially…

2-39: Zion Johnson (IOL Boston College)

2-52: David Bell (WR Purdue)

3-71: Travis Jones (DL Uconn)

4-135: Cam Taylor-Britt (CB Nebraska)

5-144: Jack Sandborn (LB Wisconsin)

5-148: Luke Tenuta (OT Virginia Tech)

6-185: Nolan Smith (EDGE Georgia)

6-213: Kenderick Duncan (S Louisville)

Projected Starting Lineup for the 2022 NFL Season:

Final Review: The Bears have two distinct options for the direction of their franchise headed into this offseason. Either retool the roster with pieces they already have or blow it up and get as many assets in return as possible. The Bears already have a few talented players on both sides of the ball. The future of their division is becoming increasingly uncertain, and they already have their franchise quarterback on his rookie contract. There are more compelling reasons to retool and be competitive. At the same time, they have the financial flexibility to build around Fields rather than rebuild completely, so I chose to explore that avenue instead of completely rebuilding. Overall, the Bears will have a different look on both sides of the ball next season, and they have a chance to be competitive sooner than people project.