Biting Kneecaps Phase Two: The Detroit Lions

Team Overview: The Detroit Lions were one of the best coached 3-13-1 teams in recent memory. Thought to be a bottom-tier team devoid of talent, there was little expected of the Lions. However, the Lions continued to exceed the expectations despite losing close games. Detroit was 0-4-1 in games decided by less than three points, defeated Green Bay and Arizona by a combined 25 points, and most of their significant blowouts came against playoff teams like the Bengals, Eagles, 49ers, and Packers. However, in the poor performances against the Broncos and Seahawks late this season, the Lions struggled offensively and defensively. The Lions had the second-worst third-down offense and fourth-worst third-down defense, both the second-worst red zone offense and defense in terms of red zone percentage, and their team battled through injury with star players Swift and Hockenson missing multiple games this season. The Lions have the right coach for the future, and with the instability in the rest of their division, the Lions can quickly jump to a 7-10 win team and become competitive.

Pre Free Agency: The Lions have an opening at the offensive coordinator positions, and they have a few options on how they can fill that based on what they want their identity to be. If the Lions decide to hire an outside candidate for the position, I expect them to pursue several candidates. The first coach they should show interest in is Pep Hamilton, current quarterbacks coach and passing coordinator for the Texans. He has been credited for the development of Justin Herbert during his rookie season, and with Davis Mills exceeding expectations this season. Next, even though he struggled to recruit players to Florida, Dan Mullen understood utilizing big-time tight end talents like Kyle Pitts and electric offensive weapons like Kadarius Toney. Finally, the Lions could give Mike Kafka the opportunity he's been pursuing for years by giving him the offensive coordinator position and play-calling duties. I think Dan Campbell will prioritize experience looking for a successful play-caller, and Dan Mullen's resume displays the most success. Next, Dan Campbell will have to try his hardest to retain coaches like Duce Staley and Antwaan Randle El offensively and Aubrey Pleasant and Mark Delone defensively, who have all shown the ability to develop players in their respective positions. Although there are risks with bringing a college coach to the NFL, Mullen's experience as a play-caller will help improve this team's performance from a year ago with Anthony Lynn.

Free Agency: The Lions have a good amount of cap flexibility to work with this upcoming off-season, and they can bring in impact players on both sides of the ball. First, the team needs to resign upcoming free-agents Tracy Walker (3yr, $18M two years guaranteed), Chris Harris (3yr, $26M), Jalen Reeves-Maybin (2yr, $4.5M), and Jason Cabinda (2yr, $2.25M one year guaranteed). Next, the Lions should pursue Dan Feeney (4yrs, $23.6M – OG Jets), Mike Williams (4yr, $70.4M – WR Chargers), Emmanuel Ogbah (3yr, $29.6M – EDGE Dolphins), Marcus Maye (2yr, $16M – S Jets), and finally Mitch Trubisky (1yr, $5.5M). Significant spending in free agency doesn’t necessarily lead to on-field success, but the Lions were seriously lacking in veteran experience last season. Bringing in young talent through free agency will help progress the Lions rebuild, allow room for development under Campbell, and be mentors to young rookies already on the team and players soon to be added through the draft. Bringing in somebody to compete against Goff for the starting job should certainly be an avenue the Lions pursue, especially if they aren’t in the position to select the quarterback they’re most excited about in the draft. Currently, this leaves Detroit with -$29.5M in cap space heading towards the draft, but following the post-June 1st cut date, the Lions can clear enough cap space to bring in their rookie selections.

Draft: Going into the draft, the Lions will have the opportunity to draft either Aidan Hutchinson (EDGE Michigan) or Kayvon Thibodeaux (EDGE Oregon). You can make an argument for either to go first overall to Jacksonville, but I believe Hutchinson has shown elite production this past season and will go first overall. That makes Thibodeaux available for Detroit to select, and they will be ecstatic to pick him. Before the college football season began, Thibodeaux was considered the consensus first overall selection. Thibodeaux is a highly talented athlete and is a generational 3-4 OLB talent. Detroit has draft capital, and I expect them to be prepared to use it to trade up and select more talent. I have Detroit trading with Baltimore (20th for 28th, 175th, and a future 6th round selection) to choose Andrew Booth Jr. (CB Clemson), a lockdown corner who can make a difference in the secondary on day one. Moving up will be necessary for Detroit to select Booth to get in front of other teams needing a corner between the 20-28 range. Fortunately, Detroit was able to keep the 34th selection with this trade. They should use this opportunity to trade back with a team interested in a developmental quarterback or offensive tackle falling in the draft. Moving around nine selections with Denver to the 43rd pick, the Lions can also acquire an additional 2nd round pick (60th overall) while giving up 34th, 216th, and a future 5th round selection. Using the 43rd pick, the Lions can take John Metchie III (WR Alabama). Furthermore, the Lions could have the opportunity to select a player I expect to fly up draft boards following the Senior bowl during the pre-draft process, Chad Muma (LB Wyoming) at 60th. The rest of their draft selections are the following…

66th: Sean Rhyan (IOL UCLA)

97th: James Cook (RB Georgia)

181th: Jeffery Guther (EDGE Coastal Carolina)

230th: Sevyn Banks (CB Ohio St)

238th: Jordan Strachen (LB South Carolina)

Projected Starting Lineup:

Post June 1st Adjustments: During the free agency period, the Lions spent $29M over the cap. However, maneuvering around the money spent in free agency won't necessarily be straightforward. After cutting Trey Flowers (saving $8.068M), Halapoulivaati Vaitai (keeping $5.27M) and Will Harris (saving around $2.2M), and restructuring Romeo Okwora (keeping $6.6M) and Michael Brockers (keeping $2.9M), the Lions should be $5.9M above the cap limit. If they need, they have the option to restructure Taylor Decker as well and save an additional $10M before extending him, but it shouldn’t be necessary.

Review Heading Into 2022: I expect the Lions to be aggressive in free agency and through the draft this offseason. Bringing in competition for Jared Goff is necessary for the team headed into next season. Whether through a developmental quarterback in the current or bringing in a veteran to compete for the job, the Lions need to challenge Jared Goff to progress. Mitch Trubiski is a veteran, and I expect him to get an opportunity to earn a starting job, especially after Matt Nagy was fired in Chicago. Otherwise, surrounding the new quarterback or a potential future quarterback with talent will focus on offense since they have already established their trenches. On defense, this team should have a unique and athletic core. This defense had a few exciting breakout players, but now this team will be loaded with athletic freaks. If the team adds athletic playmakers and doesn’t show dramatic improvement, Campbell may want to explore a new defensive coordinator. The Bears and the Vikings will be starting next season with new head coaches, and the Lions will want to take advantage of division rivals learning new systems. The Lions will be a dark horse to be competitive next season, and I’m excited to see what Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes do.