Dysfunction from the Top: the Jacksonville Jaguars

Team Overview: Jacksonville began the season with high expectations. Jacksonville finally had a bright future after selecting Trevor Lawrence first overall and hiring three-time national champion head coach Urban. However, obviously the Urban Meyer hire was a disaster, and Lawrence has had a rough rookie campaign. Before the season's final game, Lawrence led the league in interceptions, had the lowest quarterback rating this season, and had thrown two touchdowns since Week 9. On the other side of the ball, the Jaguars' performance continued to be lackluster. The team created the fewest takeaways in the entire league; they allowed the second-most points and were bottom ten in every conversion allowed measured via Pro Football Reference except fourth-down attempts (mainly because nobody needed to go for it). This will be the second consecutive season where the Jaguars finished with an abysmal 15 losses and again at the league's bottom. There is some talent on the team, there's no doubt about it, but now the Jaguars need to build around it.

Before Free Agency: The most crucial part of getting Jacksonville back to a successful football team is bringing in a head coach who has experience establishing a winning culture. Automatically, the first coach that comes to mind is Doug Pederson. Pederson completed one of the most improbable runs in playoff history by winning a Super Bowl with Philadelphia after losing Carson Wentz to a season-ending injury in just his second season. He could reinvent the offense to fit Nick Foles after the injury, and I expect him to design a dynamic offense around Lawrence, Robinson, and Ettiene. Lawrence had the 6th most passing attempts this season, and even though his arm talent coming out of college was incredible, I think Lawrence would benefit from a dynamic run game to support him. As Pederson makes a staff, I would assume he would attempt to secure coaches like Duce Staley or Jeff Stoutland to have a run-game coordinator or offensive coordinator role, who have shown success operating an efficient run-game. Developing Trevor Lawrence will be Pederson’s primary goal, and he should target a coach like Jim Caldwell. Although Caldwell will be getting head coaching interest, he fits nicely as a passing game coordinator and quarterbacks coach for the Jaguars. Caldwell can allow Pederson to focus on weekly schematics and play-calling while Caldwell can help shape Lawrence as he has done with Peyton Manning, Matt Staford, and Joe Flacco. In Philadelphia, Pederson’s DC was Jim Schwartz, a senior defensive assistant with the Titans. I expect to be a candidate for the defensive coordinator position, or he may try going in a new direction with a first-time coordinator.

Free Agency: Going into free agency, the Jaguars have $68M of cap space to resign/sign players to improve their teams with veterans. First, Jacksonville needs to re-sign Andrew Norwell (2yr, $24M first year guaranteed), D.J. Chark (4yr, $47M), Laquon Treadwell (2yr, 2.5M first year guaranteed), and Tayven Bryan (2yr, $2M first year guaranteed). Next, this is an opportunity for Jacksonville to establish an identity in their offensive and defensive lines. The Jaguars should offer contracts to Orlando Brown Jr. (4yr, $59.5M – $38M guaranteed), Solomon Thomas (3yr, $14.5 – $11M guaranteed), and Nate Herbig (4yr, $31.5M – $20M guaranteed) to add established talents to their offensive and defensive lines. That would leave Jacksonville with around $11.2M in cap space going into the draft and undrafted free agents at the end of the offseason.

Draft: Jacksonville desperately needs to bring in talent on both sides of the ball. The first overall pick gives them the flexibility to move back and acquire additional draft capital or use the first overall pick on a generational type of defensive talent. I expect the Jaguars to use the first overall selection on high-character, senior defensive edge Aidan Hutchinson. Jacksonville should trade back into the first round with the projected nineteenth pick (Philadelphia’s pick) for the 33rd and 76th pick to get Bernhard Raimann, OT from Minnesota, and finally trade back into the 2nd round with the Chargers, 49th overall, for the 65th, 196th pick, and a future 4th round pick to select Georgia DL, Devonte Wyatt. The rest of their draft selections include…

103rd: Jaxon Kirland (OT/OG Washington)

153rd: Bryan Cook (S Cincinnati)

180th: Jarrett Patterson (IOL Notre Dame)

187th: Romeo Doubs (WR Nevada)

200th: Cade Hall (EDGE San Diego State University)

218th: Joshua Ross (LB Michigan)

233rd: Smoke Monday (S Auburn)

Projected Starting Lineup 2022:

Final Review: Acquiring talent and having good coaching is equally essential to redirecting the Jaguars rebuild. After addressing the offensive line primarily in free agency and the defensive primarily through the draft, the Jaguars will have established the foundation of their team in the trenches. The Jaguars already have talented skill position players, but supporting Lawrence with a capable offensive line needs to be a priority. Following this plan for the rebuild, the Jaguars have an opportunity to be competitive again next season.