Giant Expectations, Giant Failures

Team Overview: The New York Giants may have been the most challenging team to watch down the stretch this season. From Week 13 to Week 18, the Giants only had two touchdowns before five minutes left in the 4th quarter. In that span, they played the Chargers (21 points – 14 in garbage time), Cowboys (6 points), Eagles (10 points – 7 in garbage time), Bears (3 points), and Washington (7 points). Their offense produced the most turnovers and had the highest turnover percentage in the league, they had the lowest points scored per drive, and they had the lowest red zone percentage of all 32 teams. Although ravaged by injury and their failure to play competent offensive football through the end of the season, their defense performed better comparatively. The Giants generated an above-average number of interceptions and total turnovers, allowed the ninth lowest-scoring percentage, and finished top ten in lowest red zone success percentage allowed. However, this team struggled to rush the passer. They were bottom ten in total sacks and sack percentage, tied for the fewest tackles for loss in the league, and produced the eighth-lowest hurry percentage, fourth-lowest quarterback knockdown percentage, and third-lowest pressure percentage. Fortunately for Giants fans, the organization has decided to move on from Dave Gettleman, who managed to put this team in cap hell, and Joe Judge, who had no idea how to prepare a team weekly.

Coaches and General Manager: When I started writing the New York Giants review, it was unclear who their next coach and general manager would be. Since then, the Giants have hired Joe Schoen, former assistant general manager of the Buffalo Bills, and their former offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. I wasn't sure if the cap situation and the current roster construction would attract a top-tier coaching candidate; however, Schoen and Daboll are headed to New York. Schoen has been with the Bills since 2017 and has had 20 years of experience working in scouting and executive experience. Buffalo has made the postseason four of the past five seasons after having a playoff drought since 1999. The success in Buffalo has been due to a combination of their roster construction and incredible coaching. The Giants hope to replicate that with Schoen and Daboll in New York. Daboll has been the leader of the Buffalo offense, including being credited with the development and success of Josh Allen. This past season, the Bills were one of the most dynamic offenses in football; battling with the Chiefs in the AFC Divisional Round, being highly successful teams on third down and in the red zone, and being top ten in rushing passing touchdowns. Buffalo was 0-6 in games decided by 7 points or less this season. Hopefully, Daboll can replicate the offensive success from Buffalo in New York.

Pre-Free Agency: The Giants will need to maneuver above the cap again, with a projected around $10M over the cap heading into 2022. Before heading into free agency, this team needs to clear as much cap as possible. This team’s transformation begins with cutting James Bradberry (saving around $5.2M) and Sterling Shepard (saving around $4.5M) with post-June 1st designations, along with cutting Kyle Rudolph (saving around $2.5M), restructuring Logan Ryan (converting his bonus to base salary saving around $4M), and trading Saquon Barkley. Although Barley has not lived up to the 2nd overall hype he received coming out of Penn State, the Giants can hopefully still get some level of compensation from a competing team looking for the final piece. The Chiefs and the Bills both make sense as landing spots for Barkley, but Buffalo could be eager to add another star piece around Allen after falling short to the Chiefs. Before free agency begins as well, I expect the Giants to resign Jaylon Smith (1yr – $4.5M) and Evan Engram (1yr – $5.5M)

Giants Receives: 2022 3rd Round Pick (89th Overall), 2023 5th Round Pick

Buffalo Receives: Saquon Barkley (RB), 2022 6th Round Pick (183rd)

Now that the Giants have cleared out a few of their bad contracts (plenty of contracts to still situate in future years), they have created some cap space to pursue lower radar free agents. Although I don’t expect the Giants to be aggressive this free agency, I still think they can upgrade at positions of need by bringing in veterans like Marlon Mack (1yr, $3.5M – RB Colts), Rasul Douglas (2yrs, $19M – CB Green Bay) with two void years as well, Xavier Woods (3yrs, $17.25M – S Vikings) with one null year, and Nate Herbig (2yrs, $8M). Beyond those additions, I expect the Giants to carry as much cap available into next season while also putting themselves in a position to have more money come off the books next offseason.

Draft: Thanks to the Chicago Bears, the Giants have two first-round selections in this upcoming draft. Since the Giants are in rebuilding mode and are looking to acquire assets, they are a prime target for teams looking to trade up for a quarterback at the seventh pick. I have the Giants and Saints making a trade; the Giants receive the 18th and 50th selections in the 2022 draft, along with a 2023 2nd that can elevate to a 1st rounder if the Saints selection plays 70% of snaps and they reach the playoffs or 75% of snaps regardless of a playoff berth. In return, the Saints receive the 7th overall selection and the 146th pick in the 2022 draft. Besides that, the Giants selections were…

1-5: Ikem Ekwonu (OT NC State)

1-18: Tyler Linderbaum (IOL Iowa)

2-37: Arnold Ebiketie (EDGE Penn State)

2-50: Chad Muma (LB Wyoming)

3-69: Dylan Parham (OG Memphis)

3-79: Romeo Doubs (WR Nevada)

3-89: Brian Robinson Jr. (RB Alabama)

4-109: Alontae Taylor (CB Tennessee)

5-173: Jelani Woods (TE Virginia)

Projected Starting Lineup:

Final Review: Finally, before the season starts, the last thing the Giants need to do is cut Riley Dixon (saving around $2.5M). Overall, the Giants aren’t going to turn this team around in one offseason. The Giants still have players on bad contracts whose future is unclear, like Leonard Williams, Kenny Golladay, and Logan Ryan, but there is room for growth with this team. They may pursue a veteran quarterback like Mitch Trubiskey to compete against Jones for the starting job, but Jones’ skill set projects well to the Buffalo scheme. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Jones can throw the ball well deep down the left and middle of the field, recording a 135.4 and 158.3 QBR when targeting those respective areas. Although there hasn’t been a noticeable increase in Jones’ development, he still has the talent to be an NFL quarterback, and I expect Daboll to get the most out of him this season. Suppose Jones’ performance is disappointing this season. In that case, the Giants will be in a situation with an extra first-round selection in next year’s draft to either move up to draft a quarterback or trade their assets for a veteran. This year will be the final season for Jones to prove he is a franchise quarterback. Daniel Jones will finally put him in a position to succeed with a new offensive line built to protect him, a running by committee approach to continue to give defenses different threats to scheme for out of the backfield, and still a talented group of receivers along with some infused youth at the position. Overall, the Giants address the trenches, specifically, the offensive line, bring in a talented young pass rusher to pair with Azeez Ojulari, and acquire assets to help them rebuild in future offseasons. The Giants are trending in a positive direction even though they’ve only hired their future general manager and head coach. Hopefully, Schoen and Daboll can turn their giant expectations into results.