Houston, We Have a Problem: Beginning the Rebuild

Team Overview: The Houston Texans showed their apparent lack of talent following the disgraceful departure of Bill O’Brien. David Culley inherited a team with more holes than swiss cheese and without substantial draft capital to acquire young talent. This team performed above expectations, led by Davis Mills and Jonathan Greenard. The Texans struggled to rush the passer, creating the fifth least sacks. They produced the third-fewest quarterback hits, allowed the third-most yards per completion to opposing quarterbacks, and allowed the most yards per attempt. Mills showed he deserved an opportunity to develop after scoring the 20th most passing touchdowns and the 13th fewest turnovers in his rookie campaign. However, their young passer did not have a run game to support him, coming in last in the league in yards, yards per attempt, and second-fewest rushing scores. The offseason will be where the Texans look to add young playmakers at impact positions across the board. They may not be prepared to be competitive after one offseason because of the talent they are lacking and the contract situations they need to resolve.

Pre-Free Agency: When I started writing this review, The Houston Texans had yet to fire David Culley. Now that Culley has been fired, Nick Caserio will look for their long-term coach. I expect former HC Brian Flores, OC Josh McDaniels, and LB coach Jerod Mayo to be the leading candidates due to their connection to Caserio's time in New England. Houston isn't necessarily an attractive job. Thus, they may struggle to hire a top-tier candidate. Jerod Mayo leads an exciting defense in New England; he is filled with energy and has many exciting head coaching qualities. Houston will be going through a culture change this offseason, and there are few people I would want to lead change than Jerod Mayo. Mayo will benefit from surrounding himself with experienced coaches as coordinators. Josh Boyer has been the defensive coordinator with the Dolphins for the past two years, and he brings a high-energy blitz-heavy defense with him from Miami. For offensive coordinator, Mayo can choose to retain Pep Hamilton, the current quarterbacks/passing game coordinator for Houston, to continue to help Davis Mills' development, or he can elect to bring in an outside coach like Nick Caley. I would elevate Hamilton to offensive coordinator to keep him with the team and bring in Caley, current tight ends and full backs coach with New England, as passing game coordinator and assistant head coach. Still, Houston needs to address their open quarterbacks' coach position with someone who has shown the ability to develop quarterbacks and has experience evaluating college quarterbacks if they decide Davis Mills isn't the long-term option. Zac Robinson, current assistant quarterbacks coach with the Rams, stands out as a coach they could explore as their quarterbacks and passing game coordinator. Zac has spent the past three seasons working with Rams' quarterbacks Matt Staford and Jared Goff, but he also spent time as the assistant wide receivers coach. Before his job with the Rams, Robinson was a senior analyst for Pro Football Focus and was one of their top pro and college quarterback evaluators.

Free Agency: The Texans have several aging players who underperformed that are free agents this offseason. Thus there are only a few players they should bring back. The team should re-sign Justin Reid (4yrs $50.6M three years guaranteed), Jacob Martin (4yrs $33.5M one additional void year), Maliek Collins (3yrs, $22.3M two years guaranteed), and Kamu Grugier-Hill (1yr, $3.5M). Next, the Texans should look to establish their trenches by signing James Daniels (4yrs, $26.5M – OG Bears) and Al-Quadin Muhammad (3yr, $21.5M – EDGE Colts), and finally explore bringing in an established veteran for the middle of their defense in Kwon Alexander (1yr, $4M – LB Saints). The Texans aren’t in the phase of their rebuild where they should be adding lots of veteran free agents, but there are players you can find here to compliment the positions they plan to take in the draft.

Deshaun Watson Trade: The uncertainty around Deshaun Watson's legal situation remains an issue, but that won't stop teams from making offers for him this offseason. Trading Watson could bring in significant draft capital to create their future foundation as an organization starting to rebuild. Watson and Brian Flores have strong connections with each other, and they appear to be attempting to connect in New York. First, New York needs to hire a general manager before bringing in a head coach, but Brian Flores should be high on their target list. Wherever Flores becomes a coach next, if they don't have an established quarterback, I expect them to pursue Watson as well.

New York Giants receive: Deshaun Watson, 2022 5th round selection (181st)

Houston Texans receive: Daniel Jones, 2022 1st round (5th overall) and 3rd round (69th) selections, their 2023 1st round and 2nd round selections, and their 2024 1st round selection.

Draft: Unless Jacksonville shakes up the draft by selecting Evan Neal, Houston should get an opportunity to choose him. Assuming Jacksonville and Detroit go with the top two edge rushers, Houston should select Evan Neal (OT – Alabama). Neal is ranked first on Bruce Feldman’s athletic freaks list, above Hutchinson and Thibodeaux. As a natural right tackle, the Texans will solidify their bookends for years to come with Neal and Tunsil. Next, as a part of the Watson trade, the Texans will have the fifth overall selection to take a generational corner, Derek Stingley Jr. (CB – LSU). During the opening of the 2nd round, I have Houston taking a risk on massive defensive lineman Jordan Davis (IDL – Georgia). With Mayo as a coach, this team would likely evolve into a 3-4 style defensive scheme, and Jordan Davis is a talented interior defensive linemen with game-changing size. The rest of the Texans draft includes…

67th: George Pickens (WR – Georgia)

69th: Jarrett Patterson (IOL – Notre Dame)

76th: Kyren Williams (RB – Notre Dame)

129th: Brian Asamoah (LB – Oklahoma)

199th: Yusef Corker (S – Kentucky)

Projected Starting Lineup:

Cap Cuts: Before the beginning of next season, the Texans should look to unload as much money as possible from aging, underperforming veterans. The team should cut Marcus Cannon (saving $6.35M), Jimmy Moreland (saving $2.4M), and Cam Johnston (saving $2M).

Final Review: Houston will be entering phase one of their new exciting rebuild, and getting a more athletic roster will be a primary focus. Although they may struggle to compete against more experienced teams next year, the Texans still have plenty of their foundation set. Evan Neal and Laremy Tunsil are two incredibly athletic tackles who will protect Davis Mills or Daniel Jones next season, depending on who wins the starting job. Kyren Williams and George Pickens both are playmakers at important skill positions, and they create more options for the quarterback. Most importantly, this team will have invested heavily in the trenches on both sides of the ball. This team will have a new defensive identity, and heavy investments into that defensive unit show their commitment to surrounding their playmakers with more talent. Jordan Davis working in a nose tackle role, eating up blocks will create opportunities for 1v1 matchups across the defensive line, and Stingley has the potential to be a superstar lockdown corner. Overall, Houston needs to acquire assets for their future and bring in young, talented players, and with this offseason plan, they achieve both goals.