Still Awaiting the Final Rhuling

Team Overview: The Carolina Panthers finished as one of the most disappointing teams this season. Following the Sam Darnold acquisition this past offseason, the expectation was for his development to make a significant leap forward. Getting out of New York allowed Darnold to show his talent wasn't correctly utilized under Adam Gase, just like Ryan Tannehill moving to Tennessee. However, Darnold fell far short of those expectations this season. In the 11 games Darnold started for the Panthers this season, he finished with a 4-7 record, accumulated 13 interceptions to only nine touchdowns, and had the lowest quarterback rating in his career. Beyond just the numbers, Sam Darnold struggled with processing speed, just as in New York. His sloppy footwork in the pocket can account for many of the sacks he endured, although their porous offensive line certainly didn't help. After their 3-0 start and the Christian McCaffery injury, the Panthers' season and Sam Darnold's confidence completely collapsed. There is no way to say with any certainty where Darnold's confidence is now after losing his starting role to Cam Newton in the middle of the season. The $18.9M financial commitment the Panthers made to Darnold by picking up his fifth-year option last offseason makes it essentially impossible to trade him, and releasing him only hurts the organization. The controversy around the quarterback position and the offensive instability distracted from the defense's success this season as well. This season, the Panthers allowed the fourth-fewest first downs, fourth-fewest passing yards on the second-fewest attempts, but only generated the 28th highest turnover percentage. Overall, the Panthers have areas to address on their offensive line, the quarterback position, and linebacking corps. However, the main issue the Panthers are currently facing is Matt Rhule. Since Rhule has become the coach in Carolina, they've produced a 10-23 record but always seem to be making win-now roster moves. This year, the Panthers are already low on draft capital after the Darnold deal, and they don't have much cap space for next season. Whether the Panthers decide to continue to make win-now moves, even with the current state of their roster or rebuild their foundation for the future, the organization and Matt Rhule have important decisions to make.

Pre Free Agency / Free Agency: The contractual commitments the Panthers have already makes it difficult to re-sign their high-profile free agents this offseason. Stephon Gillmore, Donte Jackson, and Cam Newton will likely demand more money than the Panthers should be willing to spend. However, the team should look into extending a few impact players on defense next season. Bringing back DaQuon Jones (2yrs, $11M – one year guaranteed) and Frankie Luvu (2yrs, $6M) will help secure players that impact the strength of this team. In free agency, the Panthers won’t have much money to spend, but they could be in the market for a veteran safety and need to expand the quarterback room. Replacing players from the secondary with a free agent like Ricardo Allen (1yr, $2.75M) will help solidify their secondary for the short term, and signing a quarterback like Marcus Mariota (1yr, $5M) will create competition for week one starting quarterback. Also, to clear enough cap space to make these moves possible, the Panthers should look into cutting Dennis Daley (saving $2.5M).

Draft: After the Panthers' moves this year and last offseason, they currently only have one selection in the first three rounds. Navigating the draft board won't be particularly simple, but the Panthers will be in a prime position to trade down. The Panthers also have the opportunity to use this trade-down situation to clear cap space. Accumulating draft capital isn't easy, but the Panthers can find a way to maximize the value on their roster and out of the selections they do have. First, I have the Panthers exploring a deal with a team searching for a new franchise quarterback, the Washington Commanders…

Carolina Panthers Receive: 2022 1st Round Pick (11th), 2022 2nd Round Pick (43rd), and 2023 4th Round Pick

Washington Commanders Receive: 2022 1st Round Pick (6th), 2022 6th Round Pick via Las Vegas (199th), and Pat Elflein

In this situation with how the draft board fell, all three of the top tackles went off the board earlier than expected. Although there were a plethora of talented players available for the Panthers selection at eleven, I had the Panthers moving back again to acquire even more draft capital. The Panthers could move back with another team looking to move up for a quarterback, but they don’t want to move too far back where they can’t grab a tier-two tackle prospect. Thus, I have them exploring their second deal with an NFC East team, the Philadelphia Eagles…

Carolina Panthers Receive: 2022 1st Round Pick (16th) and 2022 2nd Round Pick (51st)

Philadelphia Eagles Receive: 2022 1st Round Pick (11th) and 2023 4th Round Pick

In two quick moves, the Panthers have rebuilt their draft capital. Equally impressively, the Panthers managed to keep their first-round pick in the first half of the draft as well. Although these specific trades are hypothetical, the concept of Carolina moving back is what's paramount. The decision to move back and acquire assets to build their potential draft class is undoubtedly a decision the Panthers will be considering well before draft day. Furthermore, with the draft board available at 51st selection, I have the Panthers opting to move down with Atlanta, acquiring the 58th and 72nd picks for the 51st and 220th in the 2022 draft. Overall, I have the Panthers draft class finishing looking something like this…

1-15: Trevor Penning (OT UNI)

2-43: Zion Johnson (IOL Boston College)

2-51: Chad Muma (LB Wyoming)

3-72: Jalen Pitre (CB Baylor)

4-105: Josh Paschal (EDGE UK)

5-142: Cole Strange (OG Chattanooga)

5-147: Bryan Cook (S Cincinnati)

2022 Projected Starting Lineup:

Team Review: The Carolina Panthers being in an odd phase between wanting to win now and needing to retool/rebuild this roster makes it challenging to predict how they approach the offseason. Although the Panthers are in this in-between phase, the rest of the NFC South Division is also in uncertainty. Every team in their division could be looking for their future franchise signal-caller this offseason with Tom Brady retiring, Matt Ryan turning 37 next season, and uncertainty surrounding Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill's futures in New Orleans. With that controversy in mind and the Panthers having a solid defensive unit, they could quickly push to be more competitive. However, with the current state of their offensive line and their cap situation, making a move for a long-term quarterback might not be the most feasible option. Mariota has gotten the opportunity to back up Derek Carr for two years in Las Vegas. Still, hopefully, he's improved some of the issues that cost him his starting job in Tennessee during his time working with Carr. Mariota brings lots of value as a rushing threat, and if his passing has improved, he could win the job over Darnold. Beyond the decision at quarterback, I chose to invest both of Carolina's early draft selections on stand-out, senior bowl offensive linemen to protect whoever becomes their franchise quarterback. The Panthers have been missing an athletic middle linebacker in their defense following the retirement of Luke Kuechly, and Chad Muma fits that role. The Panthers will have more financial flexibility to upgrade the team next year, but these moves will elevate the team on both sides of the ball.