The Dirty Birds Rebuild Continues

Team Overview: Arthur Smith took the reins as the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons last offseason. That same offseason, the Falcons hired general manager Terry Fontenot, who inherited an aging roster that had regressed far from their 2016 form. The Falcons finished with a 7-10 record this year, but they scored the seventh least points while allowing the third most. The Falcons rushed the passer at a slightly below-average rate last season. Still, they had the fewest sacks by eleven total sacks, the fewest quarterback pressures, the lowest pressure percentage, the third least quarterback hurries, and the fifth-fewest quarterback knockdowns. Essentially, the Falcons’ pass rush was nonexistent last season. The Falcons had a below-average rushing attack this season, only having the 30th most rushing attempts, and their rushing attack finished 27th in total yards and 26th in total touchdowns. After establishing an offense that relied heavily on the run game and played action in Tennessee, Smith didn’t replicate that this year. The Falcons are in the middle of a rebuild they started last season, but they still have players on their team that help them win now. Matt Ryan will be 37 next year, Grady Jarrett will need a contract extension next season, and A.J. Trrell was one of the best corners in the league last season. The Falcons could chose to retool their roster and be competitive next year, or they can elect overhaul their roster for the future.

Pre-Free Agency/Free Agency: The Falcons have a few free agents who they should definitely consider extending this offseason. Russel Gage (4yrs, $23M), Cordarrelle Patterson (2yrs, $13M – one year guaranteed), and Olamide Zaccheaus (ROFR RFA tender) are all skill players who they should consider bringing back next season on for the future. Gage and Patterson were crucial for the offensive performance for the team following Calvin Ridley’s departure. In order to afford re-signing their players, the Falcons should entertain the concept of cutting Mike Davis (saving $1.75M) who underperformed last season while Cordarrelle Patterson excelled, Tyeler Davison (saving around $2.5M), Lafayette Pitts (saving around $1M) and James Vaughters (saving $1M). Otherwise, a few notable free agents from Atlanta likely finding a new home next season include Duron Harmon, Foyesade Oluokun, Shawn Williams, and Erik Harris. Foyesade Oluokun is a player you would love to have back, but with Deion Jones' contract on the books, Oluokun’s services may be worth more than Atlanta can afford. Free agency is also the ideal situation to create a surplus of cap space quickly, trading Calvin Ridley.

Trading Ridley/Jarrett: Ridley’s mental health struggles certainly aren’t something to speculate about or predict. For Calvin, you wish him all the best, but trading Ridley would undoubtedly return value. His contract will be expiring after this season, and if he does decide to come back and play football again, he’ll most likely leave in free agency and get a fresh start when his contract expires. Thus, trading Ridley during this free agency window will be vital since the season begins, Ridley takes away the power from Atlanta. Plenty of teams will be interested in Ridley, but no team will likely be willing to trade a first-round selection with his mental health concern. In the end, the Patriots make a lot of sense as a potential landing place for Ridley, and Bellick won’t be afraid to make an aggressive trade on a veteran receiver.

New England Patriots Receive: Calvin Ridley, and 2022 7th Round Pick (225th)

Atlanta Falcons Receive: 2022 2nd Round Pick (53rd), 2022 6th Round Pick (198th), and 2023 4th Round Pick

Besides trading Ridley, the Falcons have limited options to increase their cap space. Matt Ryan, Grady Jarrett, and Jake Matthews account for 46.09% of the total salary cap next season. Realistically to increase their cap, the Falcons will need to move on from one of these three players. Matt Ryan currently has the most stable quarterback situation in the division, even as a 37-year-old, and appears to be locked in as the starter for next season. Consistent offensive linemen are premier assets in the league, and after only allowing three sacks on 1029 offensive snaps, Jake Matthews certainly needs to return next season. With that in mind, the only apparent option the Falcons have to acquire additional draft capital and create financial flexibility is trading Grady Jarrett. The Chargers desperately need interior defensive line support, and with a quarterback on a rookie contract, the Chargers would be able to support his contract. Thus, I have a potential Jarrett deal looking something similar to this…

Los Angeles Chargers Receive: Grady Jarrett, and 2022 6th Round Pick (186th)

Atlanta Falcons Receive: 2022 2nd Round Pick (49th), and 2023 1st Round Pick

2022 NFL Draft: After trading a few veterans for picks, the Falcons have built an arsenal of draft capital for this draft and next year. Although these trades and the teams they deal with are hypothetical, the Falcons would now have four second-round selections. Five selections in the first fifty-eight picks can change a franchise, but with four of their five early picks coming between 40-58, the Falcons should certainly look to move back into the first round. Miami only had three picks in the first hundred total selections, making them a prime candidate. I expect moving back into the first round to cost them this…

Miami Dolphins Receive: 2022 2nd Round Pick via New England (53rd), and 2022 3rd Round Pick (72nd)

Atlanta Falcons Receive: 2022 1st Round Pick via San Fransisco (29th), and 2023 5th Round Pick

Now, hypothetically the Falcons would have two first-round picks and three second-round picks in an excellent draft to upgrade around the board. The Falcons need to have plenty of positions they should address in the draft, including edge, wide receiver, cornerback, safety, and quarterback. With those positional needs in mind, I project the draft to look similar to this...

1-8: Kayvon Thibidoux (EDGE Oregon)

1-29: Jordan Davis (NT Georgia)

2-40: Carson Strong (QB Nevada)

2-49: Kyler Gordon (CB Washington)

2-58: Brandon Smith (LB Penn State)

4-110: Josh Paschal (EDGE Kentucky)

5-149: Demani Richardson (S TXA&M)

6-198: Velus Jones Jr (WR Tennessee)

6-217: DJ Dale (DL Alabama)

Post June First: After the June 1st deadline, the Falcons will have the opportunity to clear a large amount of cap space by trading Deion Jones. Jones had difficulty fitting Atlanta’s defensive scheme last season and finding a new team for him before next season but after the June 1st deadline. A handful of teams could benefit from a veteran linebacker making a playoff run, but Philadelphia seems like the most probable location. Philadelphia typically hasn’t drafted a linebacker early in recent drafts, and if that trend continues, they may be interested in a veteran linebacker. Since Deion Jones carries a high salary, trading him may not get the best possible return, but Atlanta can still move on from his contract.

Philadelphia Eagles Receive: Deion Jones, and 2023 6th Round Pick

Atlanta Falcons Receive: 2023 4th Round Pick

2022 Projected Starting Lineup:

Final Review: It seems inevitable that Atlanta will elect to blow up their roster this offseason. The Falcons have wavered around mediocrity since their Super Bowl collapse in 2016. The roster is currently littered with aging, overpaid players in the decline of their careers and players entering the final year of their contracts. Atlanta runs the risk of losing out on significant draft capital in return for trading veteran assets if they allow them to walk in free agency. The Falcons have already begun reinfusing their roster with younger talent. Trading away players entering the final year of their contract for additional draft assets may be something Atlanta commits. However, this draft also allows Atlanta to select a developmental quarterback to sit behind Matt Ryan for a season. Strong has a cannon which makes challenging deep throws look textbook and often gets rid of the ball quickly to receivers open in zones. Strong can fit the ball in tight windows for his receivers with power. However, when I watched Strong’s senior bowl film, he looked uncomfortable in the pocket, underthrew an open receiver who beat the corner, which ultimately allowed the corner to play on the ball and intercept it, and he threw many quick screens passes. Strong has the talent to be a starter in the NFL, but allowing him the opportunity to mentor under Matt Ryan for at least a season should help him be more prepared when his time comes. Ultimately, the Falcons may not elect to overhaul the roster entirely. Still, they should start laying the foundation for life after Matt Ryan and drafting talented playmakers to reshape this defense.